A critical piece to the Saints success this season will be the production of Alvin Kamara without quarterback Drew Brees. When entering the league Kamara became accustomed to the game awareness of Brees and his ability to make his reads quickly. This allowed Kamara to put up 80+ receptions four straight seasons and make an instant impact. Now that Brees is gone, where does that leave Kamara in terms of production? That will be determined based on one thing, who starts at quarterback.
With the starting quarterback position up in the air, anybody can come away the starter whether it’s Jameis, Taysom, Book, or someone else. This one decision will determine and set the standard of what Kamara’s consistent production will look like.
From week 11 to week 14 Alvin Kamara played with Taysom Hill at quarterback. In those four games, Kamara was targeted 16 times with 10 receptions with no touchdowns, and he recorded his first NFL game without a reception. Based just off of the play of Hill in those four games it would be easy to say that Kamara wouldn’t be as productive as he has been, however it’s impossible to determine how Taysom Hill will play now that he’s training to be a full time quarterback this offseason. This offseason Hill will develop his craft and get better at making reads and other elements to the quarterback position.
With Jameis Winston at quarterback is truly an unknown. Winston hasn’t started in a game plan for him since the 2019 season. Here is what we know though, in that season Winston targeted running backs 113 times and completed 82 of those throws for 608 yards with no touchdowns. So in 2019 Winston had a completion percentage of 72% when targeting running backs. In 2020 Alvin Kamara by himself was targeted 107 times and caught 83 receptions which is a completion percentage of 77%.
Based off these numbers we can assume that there will be a similar production from Kamara this season, however that won’t be the case. Kamara has been so productive due to Drew Brees making his reads prior to the play and going through the motion of the play within a second. Winston is unknown along with Hill (with a full offseason of development). Obviously Kamara won’t be as electric in the passing game as usual, but he will still have an impact. Maybe he won’t have 80+ receptions but I could see a low 70’s reception number with Jameis which is not that big of a drop, and a reception resume in the 50’s with Hill.
In addition to that, Kamara will get back to the routes he ran in 2017/2018. With Drew needing a check down in Kamara he was limited to what routes he could and couldn’t run. The Texas route will come back along with more slot play and motions. We could possibly even see Kamara at receiver more often with a new quarterback. It will simply just depend on whose the quarterback and how Sean Payton wants to utilize Kamara.
In the rushing game, we could see Kamara get a 1,000 rushing yard season. He was close to it last year but couldn’t quite reach it due to Covid-19. With the signings of Nick Vannett and Alex Armah (who specialize in run blocking) it could hint towards a more balanced threat offense as well with a deep shot threat. The offense could go back o a two tight end scheme with a fullback lead blocking. This offense will be completely different and I believe will look similar to the 2017 offense. Time will tell and the only thing left to do is wait and see how the offense turns out.
Written By Kadin Janisch
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